Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions

Outline: Under the challenges of global energy crisis and climate change, nuclear energy has shown broad prospects for development. As a low-carbon energy source, nuclear energy helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on foreign fossil fuels. More than 70 countries have committed to net-zero emissions, with some planning to invest in nuclear energy. The policy environment is changing, providing opportunities for a return to nuclear power.

With its schedulability and growth potential, nuclear energy plays an important role in the power system. Extending the life of nuclear power plants is key to achieving the most cost-effective net-zero emissions path. Despite the challenges, the share of nuclear energy in the global energy mix is expected to increase, especially in emerging and developing countries. Nuclear capacity is expected to double by 2050, contributing to the global goal of net zero emissions.

Therefore, our range of nuclear power-related products, including closed-cycle coolers, high-temperature steam storage tanks, medium evaporators, compressed air tanks, daily fuel tanks, heaters, and nuclear-grade motor coolers, will fully support the advancement of nuclear power.

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In the context of global energy crisis, nuclear energy has broad prospects for development

Nuclear energy can help make the energy sector's journey away from unabated fossil fuels faster and more secure. Amid today’s global energy crisis, reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels has become the top energy security priority. No less important is the climate crisis: reaching net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by mid-century requires a rapid and complete decarbonisation of electricity generation and heat production. Nuclear energy, with its 413 gigawatts (GW) of capacity operating in 32 countries, contributes to both goals by avoiding 1.5 gigatonnes (Gt) of global emissions and 180 billion cubic metres (bcm) of global gas demand a year. While wind and solar PV are expected to lead the push to replace fossil fuels, they need to be complemented by dispatchable resources. As today’s second largest source of low emissions power after hydropower, and with its dispatchability and growth potential, nuclear – in countries where it is accepted – can help ensure secure, diverse low emissions electricity systems.

The policy landscape is changing, opening up opportunities for a nuclear comeback. More than 70 countries, covering three-quarters of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, have pledged to cut their emissions to net zero. While renewables would provide the largest share of low emissions electricity and many countries either do not foresee the need or do not want a role for nuclear power, a growing number of countries have also announced plans to invest in nuclear. The United Kingdom, France, China, Poland and India have recently announced energy strategies that include substantial roles for nuclear power. The United States is investing in advanced reactor designs.

Energy security concerns and the recent surge in energy prices, notably in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have highlighted the value of a diverse mix of non fossil and domestic energy sources. Belgium and Korea have recently scaled back plans to phase out existing nuclear plants. The UK Energy Security Strategy includes plans for eight new large reactors. Faster restarts of Japanese nuclear reactors that have received safety approvals could free up liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes desperately needed in Europe or other markets in Asia. In the decade following the 1973 oil shock, construction started on almost 170 GW of nuclear power plants. These plants still represent 40% of today’s nuclear capacity. Nuclear additions in the last decade reached only 56 GW. With policy support and tight cost controls, today’s energy crisis could lead to a similar revival for nuclear energy.

Achieving net zero globally will be harder without nuclear

As an established large-scale low emissions energy source, nuclear is well placed to help decarbonise electricity supply. In the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), energy sector emissions fall by about 40% from 2020 to 2030, and then decline to zero on a net basis by 2050. While renewable sources dominate and rise to nearly 90% of electricity supply in the NZE, nuclear energy plays a significant role. This narrow but achievable pathway requires rigorous and immediate policy action by governments around the world to reshape energy systems on many fronts. Extending nuclear plants’ lifetimes is an indispensable part of a cost-effective path to net zero by 2050. About 260 GW, or 63%, of today’s nuclear plants are over 30 years old and nearing the end of their initial operating licences. Despite moves in the past three years to extend the lifetimes of plants representing about 10% of the worldwide fleet, the nuclear fleet operating in advanced economies could shrink by one-third by 2030. In the NZE, the lives of over half of these plants are extended, cutting the need for other low emissions options by almost 200 GW. The capital cost for most extensions is about USD 500 to USD 1 100 per kilowatt (kW) in 2030, yielding a levelised cost of electricity generally well below USD 40 per megawatt-hour (MWh), making them competitive even with solar and wind in most regions. Nuclear power plays a significant role in a secure global pathway to net zero. Nuclear power doubles from 413 GW in early 2022 to 812 GW in 2050 in the NZE. Annual nuclear capacity additions reach 27 GW per year in the 2030s, higher than any decade before. Even so, the global share of nuclear in total generation falls slightly to 8%. Emerging and developing economies account for more than 90% of global growth, with China set to become the leading nuclear power producer before 2030. Advanced economies collectively see a 10% increase in nuclear, as retirements are offset by new plants, mainly in the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Canada. Annual global investment in nuclear power rises from USD 30 billion during the 2010s to over USD 100 billion by 2030 and remains above USD 80 billion to 2050.

Less nuclear power would make net zero ambitions harder and more expensive. The Low Nuclear Case variant of the NZE considers the impact of failing to accelerate nuclear construction and extend lifetimes. In this case, nuclear’s share of total generation declines from 10% in 2020 to 3% in 2050. Solar and wind would need to fill the gap, pushing the frontiers of integrating high shares of variable renewables. More energy storage and fossil fuel plants fitted with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) would be needed. As a result, the NZE’s Low Nuclear Case would require USD 500 billion more investment and raise consumer electricity bills on average by USD 20 billion a year to 2050.

The news comes from: Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions